It has been a solid last month for George R. R. Martin.
After returning from the HBO pilot shoot for A Game of Thrones, which took several weeks away from his writing in late October/November as he visited the set and actors, it seems George delved right into A Dance With Dragons with a slashing sword of work ethic. He has posted more updates in the last three weeks than he has in the last three years, and each update contains information that he has finished another chapter in a book that everyone and their grandmother are waiting for.
I will try to put this in a bit of perspective though. No reason to get super excited yet. In late July 2009, Anne Groell shared with me that George had passed the 1000 manuscript page mark. George later confirmed this as well. On October 6th, George shared via his blog that he had passed the 1100 page manuscript mark. It took him 2 months to write and wrap up 100 pages.
Then from October 22nd – November 24th he was out of the country and away from his computer—non-writing time. Then the holidays. The New Year.
Today he announced that he has passed 1205 manuscript pages.
These are finished manuscript pages, according to George. He also has various excerpts, unfinished chapters, and additional material that he is not pleased with yet but which exist. That means it took him roughly 3 months, give or take a week, to wrap up another 100 pages. Two chapters of those 100 pages are that Meereneese Knot problem he has been working at since 2006.
Say what you want, naysayers: George has been on a roll.
Now, this is history and probably has no bearing on the reality of the current version of A Dance With Dragons, but in 2006 George thought the book would come in around 1200-1300 manuscript pages. As a reference, A Game of Thrones is 1088 manuscript pages, A Clash of Kings is 1184 manuscript pages, and A Storm of Swords is 1521 manuscript pages.
Right now A Dance With Dragons will be the second longest book in the series.
How much does George have left? Only he and his editor know. The book very well could be 1500 manuscript pages, which would give George at least another nine months minimum to complete. If he is still gunning for his 1300 page guess from four years ago, he could be close to completion.
We’ll have to wait and see. It is really nice to see how open he has been about the completion of certain chapters. It means he is hard at work and, like most writers, making progress on a book usually leads to more progress.
When on a roll… keeping rollin’…
Although it is tempting, I would very strongly resist using any kind of mathmatical formulae to attempt to divine how long it will take to complete the book, since writing is very much not a mechanical process.
In addition, GRRM wrote 100 MS pages in two months (then another 220 MS pages in about four months leading up to the May 2005 completion announcement) during the latter part of the writing process of AFFC. Depending on the circumstances, it’s possible the book could be as long (or almost as long) as ASoS and still finished a lot more quickly than nine months from now, as GRRM’s writing speed does seem to quicken noticeably as he approaches the end of the book and gets some wind in his sails.
A very wise word of caution, Adam. I am optimistic but it is guarded. Some people are optimistic, then get let down, then vent.
I do find the “math” at least interesting. For some writers, it can be formula-ed but not George. Not for freewriters. Since I am an outliner I usually know right around how many chapters a book is going to be. It takes me a week to complete a chapter. And since The Dark Thorn is a stand alone, I don’t have to worry about future storylines like George does.
Keep rollin’ indeed! I saw the update on his blog the other day as well and it made me pretty excited, but I agree that guarded optimism is the best approach
Shawn – I feel like I read that The Dark Thorn was part of a planned trilogy – am I way off base in that?
Grantly: It is a planned trilogy, but I knew early on that each book would be able to be read — and understood — without additional reading involved.
That, of course, can’t be said of, say… A Dance With Dragons, which if someone just picked that book up and read it alone, they wouldn’t know what the hellfire was going on.
The Dark Thorn has a beginning, a middle, and an end. That way when someone finishes it, they will feel satisfied.
Of course, that’s if I’ve done my work right, they will be.
I still have a long way to go though. I have 10 more chapters to rewrite. Then I have to give it to the agent. If he likes it, I’m sure I’ll have to rewrite some of it again. Then the pitch to the publishers. Etc. Etc. It is never ending, I swear!
If the agent doesn’t like it, then I query another agent. And the process starts all over again.
But that’s what makes the publishing industry so challenging, I guess. And why I love it. Each step feels like a win.